Predicting the distribution of three invasive weeds under current and future climatic conditions in the Nile Delta coast, Egypt .
The global climate change, including increases in temperature and precipitation, may aggravate the invasion of weed species. In the present study, Ensemble modelling was performed to predict Atriplex lindleyi, Trianthema portulacastrum, and Xanthium strumarium distribution worldwide and in Egypt under the current and future global climate changes, including increases in temperature and precipitation.
T. portulacastrum showed the highest suitability in Africa compare to other parts of the world and compare to other study species. Asia and Europe are more suitable for the potential presence of X. strumarium. For A. lindleyi, there was no clear change in the suitable habitat under the current and future climatic scenarios in Egypt. T. portulacastrum is predicted to have expansion under the climate change particularly in eastern desert of Egypt and Nile Delta. X. strumarium showed high expansion in Sinai compared to other regions under the highest climatic scenario 2090.
T. portulacastrum presence increased gradually with the increase of the mean temperature of the wettest quarter (Bio8) and the driest quarter temperature (Bio9). This indicate that the global warming in the future will be in favour to increase the invasion risk of this species up to 40 ◦C. In contrast, the probability of presence of X. strumarium is gradually decreased with the increase of isothermality.
Our results suggest that future climate change will increase T. portulacastrum distribution both globally and locally. Therefore, long-term management plans are needed around the world and in Egypt to reduce the habitat expansion of T. portulacastrum.
Keywords: Climate change; Ensemble modelling; Habitat suitability; Invasive weed species; Nile Delta